A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
